September 29, 2020 in Case Studies
Usually, Romanians used to plan their holidays for the current year well ahead starting in Q1 and then constantly searching for fitting offers until Q3. The first spike thus is in January 2020 was no different here, and the second in June and the subsequent months. This season, however, was on a five-year low, even after lockdown and restrictions were eased.
For 2020 we can observe first in early Q2 an abrupt decline in searches for holidays, which was obviously forced by lockdown, both domestic and largely international. But even after the lockdown was eased the overall search activity for 2020 (blue line) compared to last year (red line) remained well below. It is hard to capture the entire impact on he industry as a whole by these graphics alone, but it is safe to say that at search activity over the course of the year so far have been down with at least 30% – 40% for the year so far.
This can be seen particularly well if we observe the search for the most popular travel destinations for Romanians like Turkey, Greece, and Bulgaria over the last three years: being otherwise pretty constant, we see a sharp drop during lockdown 2020, between March and June. Beginning with the end of lockdown and start of the holiday season searches rise again, but without reaching the level of the previous year. It seems that this is not necessarily driven by external factors, such as restrictions, but possibly a large number of Romanians prefer to stay safe to avoid holidays altogether.
This is also suggested by the evolution of the searches for vacations in Romania, which on the one hand experience a more characteristic, longer-lasting spike in 2020 (we see three spikes in 2020 »mountain« vs only two in the previous years), however, the overall level of search activity seems to be below the previous year level.
The same behavior remains visible if we analyze the search data for the most popular holiday destinations at the Romanian seaside: Searches for sea resorts such as Mamaia, Eforie, Mangalia, and Costinesti are heavily affected during the lockdown and at the end of April / beginning of May when they should have their first spike. Starting with the summer holiday period we see a catch-up, even though, the level remains here also below previous years.
The same pattern persists for searches for in-country travel destinations such as the mountain resort „Poiana Brasov” but also Vatra Dornei, Baile Felix, or Herculane: a forced and sharp decline during the lockdown, and a cautious, not fully recovered resume starting with the summer holiday season.
But not everything was the same. The situation gave rise to completely new searches such as here the rapidly rising search for travel conditions.
Not everything was persistent though: The search for COVID tests for travels to Greece appeared suddenly in summer and disappeared the same fast at the end of the holiday season:
But travel was affected in general, not only vacation. This becomes clear if we take a look at the searches for flight tickets, which also include business travel and other migration movements. Thus, the impact on the sector as a whole may be bigger and exceeds the effect suggested by the search for vacations.
The budget, by the way, does not seem the main concern. Searches for last-minute and all-inclusive fell in the same manner, without showing a clear difference in their decline.
